Probability – Bayes Theorem – 22 January 2025 (Shift 1)

Question ID: #147
JEE Main22 January Shift 1, 2025Statistics & Probability

Two balls are selected at random one by one without replacement from a bag containing 4 white and 6 black balls. If the probability that the first selected ball is black, given that the second selected ball is also black, is $\frac{m}{n}$ where $\gcd(m,n)=1$, then $m+n$ is equal to:

  • (1) 14
  • (2) 4
  • (3) 11
  • (4) 13

Solution:

Let $B_1$ be the event that the first ball is black, and $B_2$ be the event that the second ball is black.

We need to find $P(B_1 | B_2) = \frac{P(B_1 \cap B_2)}{P(B_2)}$.

Total balls = 10 (4 White, 6 Black).

$P(B_1 \cap B_2)$ (Both Black):
$$ = \frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9} = \frac{30}{90} $$

$P(B_2)$ (Second is Black):
This can happen in two ways: (White, Black) or (Black, Black).
$$ P(B_2) = P(W_1 B_2) + P(B_1 B_2) $$
$$ = \left(\frac{4}{10} \times \frac{6}{9}\right) + \left(\frac{6}{10} \times \frac{5}{9}\right) $$
$$ = \frac{24}{90} + \frac{30}{90} = \frac{54}{90} $$

Required Probability:
$$ P(B_1 | B_2) = \frac{30/90}{54/90} = \frac{30}{54} = \frac{5}{9} $$

Here $m=5, n=9$. Since $\gcd(5,9)=1$, these are the required values.

$m+n = 5 + 9 = 14$.

Ans. (1)

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